Highlights – March 2025
Data visualization
Evolution of the key employment indicators over one year
Sources: Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0459-01, and Québec International.
Overview of employment in major Canadian regions
Analysis
Limited drop in employment
According to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) conducted by Statistics Canada, the labour market registered a small drop in March, continuing the trend observed in February. Still, this decline is not significant and is lower than the previous month, as job losses only reached 900 (-0.2%), despite the uncertainty looming over the labour demand. The unemployment rate fell to 4.5% (-0.1 pp), along with the labour force (-0.3%). This means that the decrease in the working-age population holding a job or looking for a job compensated for the drop in employment. The employment rate was 62.2% (-0.2 pp) in March.
In Canada, comparable data shows that the labour market also registered slight variations in March. The increase in employment is below the 15,000 mark (+14,900), a variation of 0.1%. While the Canadian unemployment rate remained at 6.6%, the Québec City CMA maintained its position among the regions with the lowest unemployment rates in the country (5th rank). The province of Quebec and Canada had similar variations in terms of the number of jobs (+0.1%). However, the unemployment rate now sits at 5.5% in the province due to a small increase (+0.1 pp).
Negative year-over-year results in employment from March 2024 to March 2025
With employment registering a third consecutive monthly drop in the Québec City CMA in March 2025 (-0.2%), the cumulative decrease over the past 12 months reached 16,000 jobs (-3.3%). During that period, based on non-seasonally adjusted data, the accommodation and food services (-29.3%) and transportation and warehousing (-18.5%) industries experienced the most losses. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the highest increases were observed in the professional, scientific and technical services (+10.0%) and the manufacturing (+8.4%) industries.
Quebec budget and labour market
The provincial budget released on March 25 contained a few announcements affecting the labour market, including aid in sectors experiencing significant demand. Among those announcements, by continuing the Offensive formation en construction, an initiative to promote training in the field of construction, the government estimates that 10,000 additional workers will be trained or retrained by 2028 to help execute major infrastructure work in the future.
Moreover, the tax credit for the development of e-businesses (crédit d’impôt pour le développement des affaires électroniques, CDAE) was reviewed to better integrate artificial intelligence (AI), and has been renamed CDAEIA. This action may affect the labour market by redirecting tax assistance toward the growing sector of AI solutions. In the same vein, the introduction of a tax credit for R&D, innovation and pre-commercialization (crédit d’impôt pour la recherche, l’innovation et la commercialisation, CRIC) will be the first pillar of the new tax assistance plan for innovation, which will include labour expenditures.
These measures may affect employment in these sectors. However, their implementation and real impact on the labour market can only be assessed in the long term.
Rosalie Forgues
Economist
Québec International
