Highlights
- According to the Conference Board of Canada, the Québec City census metropolitan area (CMA) recorded $34.9 billion in real GDP in the third quarter of 2015, up 1.7% from the same period in 2014.
- The completion of major residential and non-residential projects bolstered the construction industry, which recorded an increase of 0.8%.
- The manufacturing sector continued to recover with a 0.5% increase. The services sector maintained its upward trend with a 0.3% third-quarter increase.
- This performance brings the cumulative increase in real GDP for the first nine months of 2015 to 1.9% compared with the same period in 2014.
Commentary
In 2015, the regional manufacturing sector continued its recovery, which began in 2014, posting a 4.1% increase in the first nine months of the year. Further opportunities for new contracts and market development took shape among manufacturers, thanks in particular to the US economic recovery and the sagging Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, the construction sector marked a return to growth with an annualized increase of 2.4% in the first nine months of 2015. The completion of various major residential, non-residential, commercial and road projects provided a shot in the arm for the construction sector and helped to dim memories of the less-than-stellar performances in 2013 and 2014. The services sector notched an annualized gain of 1% after nine months. A boost in output was also noted in production, consumer and public services. The diversity of this regional economic pillar is supporting nearly 20 years of economic growth.
The results for the first nine months are in line with our forecast that real GDP will grow by 2% in the Québec City CMA in 2015. Thanks to industrial diversification, the region is one of Canada's top performers. It has also shown resilience in grappling with a number of circumstantial constraints. We expect that this dynamic will continue in 2016 with another real GDP increase of 2%.
Louis Gagnon
Senior Economist
Québec International
