Highlights
- The region, which had held the lowest unemployment rate among Canadian CMAs four months in a row, has now dropped to third rank for that indicator.
- The decreasing trend in the participation and employment rates that started in June has come to a halt, with the participation and employment rates increasing by 0.5 pp and 0.2 pp, reaching 66.6% and 64.3%, respectively. These rates dropped slightly in the province of Quebec, while they remained mostly unchanged in Canada.
- The CMA’s labour market recorded 2,200 more jobs, and the labour force grew by 4,100 people. As percentages, these represent increases of 0.5% in employment and 0.9% in the labour force.
- The unemployment rate remained relatively stable in the province of Quebec and Canada, standing at 4.3% in the province, and 5.3% in the country. Compared to the previous month, this is a 0.1 pp increase in both regions.
Charts
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0380-01; and Québec International.
Commentary
A growing unemployment rate
Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey revealed that the unemployment rate registered a third consecutive increase in the Québec City CMA, reaching 3.5% in July 2023. This 0.5 pp increase places the CMA in third position in terms of lowest unemployment rates, behind the Sherbrooke and Kelowna regions. The increase in the unemployment rate that started in April 2023 continues.
Employment and participation rate variations are once again positive
Contrary to the past two months (May and June 2023), the labour market participation indicators increased, with the employment rate going up to 64.3%, a 0.2 pp increase compared to the previous month, and the participation rate reaching 66.6%, a 0.5% increase. Meanwhile, the province of Quebec’s (62.0%) and Canada’s (62.1%) employment rates maintained about the same levels as the previous month. Their employment rates also remained stable, at 64.8% in the province and 65.6% in Canada.
A sign that things are going back to normal
This third increase in the unemployment rate seems to point to a progressive return to the situation that prevailed in October 2021, when the unemployment rate stood at 3.5%. Although the unemployment rate hit several lows in the region since 2022, this new rate suggests a progressive return to the pre-pandemic average. In 2019, the CMA ended the year with an average unemployment rate of 3.1%, whereas it was around 3.7% in 2018.
El Hadji Nimaga
Économist
Québec International
